Not all migrants to Germany stay in the country, according to a recent study conducted by the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB). In the study, the IAB asked more than 15,000 migrants in Germany about their experience of migration and their plans for the future. Using statistical calculations, the study authors say that the answers they were given can be read as representative of the migrant population in Germany.

Understanding the movements of migrants and the reasons behind them is important for employment policy and Germany's growing need for skilled workers, and workers in general, to fill certain jobs, according to the IAB. A study from 2024 found that in the future, Germany would be looking to fill between 270,000 and 400,000 jobs per year.

Two stages of questions

The study was set around a first questionnaire stage, carried out between December 2024 and April 2025, and then a follow-up round of questions between November 2025 and February 2026. Overall, the study resulted in a dataset of more than 15,000 respondents.

Three percent of the study respondents, which IAB calculated to correspond to around 312,000 migrants in Germany, said they had some kind of plan to move on from Germany at some point.

According to the researchers, around 43 percent of those surveyed in the first round of questions were available for a follow-up in the second wave.

Interestingly, they found that around 2.6 percent of those surveyed had left Germany in between the first round of questions and the second. Complicated and time-consuming bureaucratic processes were, for 32 percent of those asked, the second most common reason for a decision to leave or move on. This was combined with decisions to follow a partner or other family member either home or into another country.

The majority of those who did move on, 40 percent moved on in total, found the study authors, either moved to Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Croatia or decided to return home. A total of 60 percent of those who left returned to their homeland. Many of those who returned home came originally from middle or eastern Europe, countries not yet in the EU block, and would return to their regions, found the researchers.

During the first round of questioning, almost one in two of the migrants surveyed said they planned to move on from Germany eventually. However, around two-thirds of those who said they had plans to move on were still in Germany during the second round of questioning.

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Employers and society need to support some to stay

The study authors think this could have something to do with the relatively short amount of time between the first round of questions and the second. One of those authors, Yuliya Kosyakova, director of the Migration, Integration and International Employment Market research department at the IAB, said that the majority of people who did eventually move on had already signaled that they might. So, although having plans to move didn’t always signify following through on those, most people who did move on had already begun making plans to do so. Having plans, said Kosyakova, “is a strong signal” that moving on is likely.

According to Kosyakova, it would help the German employment market to be able to find out people’s plans, and whether or not they intend to stay in the country ahead of time, so that they can reinforce the potential for those who want to stay to remain and contribute to the economy.

Three percent of those questioned in the second wave said they were planning on leaving Germany within the next 12 months, so assessing the likelihood of someone remaining was still important. A further 30 percent said they had "considered leaving Germany" at some point in the last 12 months.

The reasons for leaving Germany varied, but 32 percent of those asked said that complicated and time-consuming bureaucratic processes were one of the main reasons they had decided to move on. Many said that they hadn’t received answers to their questions, or that processes took so long that they gave up on ever achieving their goals. The cost of some bureaucratic processes was also mentioned as a block.

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Younger migrants particularly critical of bureaucracy

Younger migrants were particularly critical of the bureaucratic processes involved, noted the IAB. Julia Reinold, one of the IAB researchers, said: "When administrative processes are seen as tedious, impossible to understand, or overly heavy, or difficult to access, then they can really change whether someone decides to stay in Germany or not."

Interestingly, those who moved on were on average younger and had spent less time in Germany overall. They often had family members abroad and in general had not mastered the German language. However, they often had a much better level of English than those who stayed. Many of those who left earned less in gross terms than those who stayed.

Among the group of those who moved on from Germany, there were some big differences. Those who left Germany quickly were often those with a higher level of education and who could speak very good English. They often had a German or EU passport or a permit to stay within the EU. This group, perhaps not surprisingly, often earned a lot more in gross salary than those who hadn’t yet made plans to leave.

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Some who left were those with highest educational levels and social mobility

"Planning to leave are not so easily correlated with weaker integration levels. Those who have plans to leave are also found among those with the most resources and the most sought-after people, who can benefit from international mobility," underlined Theresa Koch, another of the IAB researchers.

Around 50 percent of those who left said they would have benefited from more support from German institutions and society; 56 percent said they would have liked more support from the job center in finding a job; 44 percent said they could have used more help from German municipalities and 43 percent from their former employer. Many of those who left believed that the chances of a foreigner attaining a job in Germany were slimmer than those of a German-born national.

For some of those who answered the question, a return to Germany was not ruled out. In fact, 53 percent who had moved on said they would have liked to have stayed longer or forever in Germany. 57 percent have at least considered a return. According to researcher Laura Goßner, employers seeking skilled workers to fill vacancies could focus on this group as a potential source of talent.

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