Seven months after the "one in, one out" treaty came into effect, the United Kingdom remains far from returning at least 50 migrants per week. According to the latest data from the Home Office, 377 people have been returned to France, while 380 have been received by the UK, an average of 12 transfers per week. This represents only 2 percent of the 18,790 migrants who have arrived in small boats since the agreement entered into force on August 6, 2025.

Under the "one in, one out" scheme, migrants who reach the UK by small boat are returned to France. In exchange, the UK agrees to accept migrants already in France, through a safe and regular route, and who declare their intention to seek asylum.

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'I’ve come too far to stop now'

The aim of the agreement is to deter crossings of the English Channel in small boats, but thousands of asylum seekers have crossed the strait since the scheme began. Since the start of the year alone, more than 3,400 people have arrived in the UK.

As InfoMigrants observed in Calais, France, the treaty is not deterring migrants. “In France, I have nowhere to go, so I have no other choice but to try my luck in the UK," Ahmed*, a 26-year-old Sudanese man whose asylum application was rejected in France, told InfoMigrants.

Khaled*, an 18-year-old Sudanese migrant, said he "he will keep going."

“It doesn’t matter…I came from Africa, crossed the desert and the Mediterranean Sea… I’ve come too far to stop now or be afraid of an agreement,” he said.

Shabana Mahmood, the UK Home Secretary, said last February that the number of migrant expulsions remained "relatively low," and that the scheme was a pilot project and "intended to demonstrate the viability of this new model of cooperation with the French."

She also noted that "practical difficulties arise regarding the speed at which people can be detained, placed on a plane and transferred to France," she told the London Broadcasting Company.

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Legal challenges

The program is also facing legal challenges. On Thursday, March 12, a judge at the High Court of Justice suspended the deportation to France of an Eritrean man who was due to be expelled under the Franco-British agreement.

The 31-year-old asylum seeker, who arrived in the UK on August 12 aboard a small boat, said that France does not provide sufficient support for victims of human trafficking. Because he had been recognized as a victim of trafficking by British authorities after being detained and exploited by a militia in Libya, the judge suspended the deportation. The court found that people returned under the “one in, one out” scheme might struggle to access accommodation in France and could face obstacles in obtaining healthcare within the French system.

The man had previously attempted to seek asylum in France, but without success. The judge therefore ruled that there was a "serious risk that the same situation would recur if he were returned to France." He added that the man would likely not be recognised as a trafficking victim by French authorities because the trafficking had not taken place in France, and that there was “real doubt” about whether he would be able to access timely psychological support there.

In explaining his decision to suspend the deportation, the judge concluded that the Eritrean asylum seeker "risked suffering damage to his mental health if he were forcibly transferred to France."

*Names have been changed.

This article was adapted from the French original.