Recognition rates for Afghan men aged between 18 and 40 have dropped sharply in Germany over the past year. The decline comes as the federal government adopts a more restrictive approach to asylum claims from Afghanistan.
Young men from Afghanistan are now rarely granted protection status in Germany, according to the Federal Ministry of the Interior. Though the adjusted protection rate for Afghan applicants aged 18 to 40 was still 66.6 percent in January 2025, it had dropped to 16.2 percent by January this year.
The figures were released in response to a parliamentary question from Left Party lawmaker Clara Bünger. They refer to the so-called “adjusted protection rate,” which counts only decisions by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) that assess asylum claims on their so-called merits. Formal decisions, such as determining whether another EU country is responsible for the case, are excluded. According to Interior Ministry data, that recognition rates for young Afghan men have dropped sharply since March of last year.
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Scarce work opportunities in Afghanistan unlikely to support young men
According to the Left Party, the decline coincides with new decision-making guidelines for Afghanistan cases that assume applicants may be able to find work in the country. Bünger criticized the change, saying the lower recognition rate does not reflect conditions in Afghanistan.
She pointed to the Taliban’s repressive rule and a humanitarian situation shaped by droughts, earthquakes, economic mismanagement and international sanctions. Under such circumstances, she argued, it is unrealistic to expect young men to sustain themselves through occasional work.
Germany's federal government has recently taken a tougher approach to protection requests from Afghanistan. Some previously promised admission places have been withdrawn, and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has also advocated deportations to the country. Under the current arrangements, deportations are limited to convicted criminals and individuals considered security risks.
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Afghan asylum claims in Europe
The developments in Germany come amid broader changes in asylum trends across Europe. According to the EU Asylum Agency (EUAA), around 822,000 asylum applications were filed across EU member states, Norway and Switzerland in 2025, a 19 percent decrease compared with 2024.
Despite the overall decline, Afghans submitted the largest number of applications in the EU+ countries, totaling about 117,000, which is a 33 percent increase on the previous year. However, around 41 percent of Afghan applications were repeated applications and therefore did not reflect new arrivals to the bloc.
The increase has been linked in part to a 2024 ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) confirming that Taliban restrictions on women constitute persecution, which prompted many repeat applications. The refugee protection rate rose from 54 percent in 2024 to 65 percent in 2025 -- this is largely seen not as a policy shift but rather as adherence to European jurisprudence.
At the same time, asylum requests from Syrians dropped sharply following the fall of the Assad government in late 2024. Overall, most applications remain concentrated in a small number of countries, including Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Greece.
With EPD and KNA