According to preliminary data, stated the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, the EU saw a 60 percent reduction in the number of irregular border crossings in the EU compared with the numbers of crossings registered in January of the previous year.

There was also a drop in arrivals via the Central Mediterranean route, the route used by most of those arriving in Italy, to 1,166: this marked a 67 percent reduction on the same month in 2025, Frontex data showed.

Border crossing data relies on the crossing being noted and registered and some people may be attempting to cross borders several times before they are registered. Conversely, the same person may be registered attempting to cross the same or different border several times, making the number of crossings not the same as the number of arrivals.

In mid-January, Frontex also said it believed the number of border crossings registered across the whole of 2025 was down 26 percent overall compared to data from the previous year.

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Estimated number of deaths triples to 450

Frontex said that "severe winter storms and rough seas across key migratory routes contributed" to the drop in irregular border crossings into the European Union in January 2026, making the journeys more dangerous.

"Harsh conditions in the Mediterranean and strong winds along land borders made journeys significantly more dangerous and disrupted departures," it noted in a statement posted on its website on February 13.

"The weather may have slowed departures, but it did not stop ruthless smugglers. Even in freezing temperatures and heavy seas, they continued to launch overcrowded, unseaworthy boats, sending vulnerable people into life-threatening conditions to protect their profits. The human cost has been devastating. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 450 people lost their lives in the Mediterranean in January alone; this is more than three times the figure recorded in January 2025," it noted.

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Eastern Mediterranean busiest route

"The Eastern Mediterranean was the most active route, with nearly 1,900 arrivals recorded. Despite this, detections along the route fell by 50 percent year-on-year," Frontex noted.

"The Western Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean routes followed, each registering around 1,200 arrivals. On the Channel route, detections of people attempting to cross into the United Kingdom decreased by around 10 percent, to nearly 2,300."

"The Western African route saw the steepest decline, down 79 percent compared with January 2025," it stated, adding that the "most frequently detected nationalities were Afghan, Algerian and Bangladeshi, although the nationality of many arrivals is still being verified."

"With more than 3 000 officers along the EU's external borders, Frontex continues to support national authorities in protecting Europe's borders and saving lives at sea, even in the harshest conditions," the statement stressed.

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