The Netherlands might have to process 19,000 additional asylum cases in 2028 if certain legal changes are implemented as planned. Authorities have warned that extra capacities have to be created to deal with the changes. Immigration authorities expect that in the long run, the legal changes will result in less congestion in the asylum system.
An additional 19,000 asylum cases might be on the books for Dutch authorities in 2028 if two new national asylum laws are introduced, and if the EU's migration pact is implemented exactly as it is planned.
The Council for the Judiciary, which is in charge of ensuring that Dutch courts and certain related authorities perform their duties effectively, expects that especially the implementation of the two new national asylum laws in the country is going to change the country's asylum system fundamentally, resulting in an initial spike in cases to be dealt with by officials.
The Council warned that the extensive changes to asylum law will require additional "training capacity."
The Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND) meanwhile expects that in the long run, the two new asylum laws will simplify procedures and shorten the waiting period for asylum seekers.
New Dutch law to establish two distinct asylum categories
Both of the laws are currently before the Senate (Eerste Kamer) for approval, and are expected to pass; however, it is uncertain whether the Senate will seek to include modifications.
The first of the two laws — called the the "Two Statuses Act" — is designed to make a clear distinction in future between people coming to the Netherlands upon fleeing war and violence ("B status") and those fleeing their homes because of persecution as an individual ("A status").
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The Council for the Judiciary informed the Dutch parliament that this law — if passed — will most likely be the primary reason for a major increase in the nationwide asylum caseload, affecting about half of all cases.
This is because the Council estimates that about 75 percent of asylum seekers will in future be receiving "B status," which comes with a lower chance of obtaining a longterm residence permit, since the law is designed to facilitate the return of people once a war or conflict is over.
This alone is likely to create more paperwork, with people having to present for the renewal of shorter-term residency documents more frequently; many of those who are given "B status" are also expected to appeal these decisions, which will also require more case workers to look deeper into such instances.
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Shorter duration of validity for residency papers
The other national law which is expected to significantly change the country's asylum landscape if it is passed is the so-called "Emergency Asylum Measures Act."
The "Emergency Asylum Measures Act" goes hand-in-hand with the "Two Statuses Act" — especially in "B status" cases; this law is intended to significantly shorten the validity period of official papers such as residence permits, especially of people assigned "B status" in the future.
If the two bills are passed, the new government coalition consisting of the D66, CDA, and VVD parties will be in charge of implementing them, as agreed in the coalition agreement.
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EU Migration Pact likely to bring more asylum seekers to the Netherlands
Meanwhile, the EU Migration Pact, which is to be implemented across the bloc in June 2026, is another piece of legislation that is likely to increase the number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands.
According to the pact, the Netherlands might have to accept more asylum seekers from other parts of the EU under a solidarity pool, which allocates each country a certain share.
Dutch authorities, however, will be able to buy their way out of the scheme if they find that the country cannot cope with higher numbers of asylum seekers.
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The Netherlands is already facing a housing shortage for refugees and asylum seekers, which the government might take into consideration when deciding on how it shall approach the EU Migration Pact.
Asylum cases in the Netherlands have been rising steadily in recent years: In 2023, there were about 44,500 asylum cases; by the beginning of 2026, that number had grown to 68,900, according to official figures.
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