According to authorities, there will be no mass deportations of Syrian refugees from Lebanon. However, the Lebanese government will offer US dollars as an incentive for refugee families to leave, pan-Arab and national media quoted Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri as saying on June 9.

An estimated 200,000 to 300,000 Syrian nationals may be repatriated from Lebanon in the coming months. A ministerial commission tasked with drafting a plan for the return of Syrian refugees has completed the text and will soon submit it to the cabinet.

Over 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon

An estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees are currently in Lebanon. The country does not officially recognize refugee status as it is not a signatory to the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention. The first refugees arrived in 2011, following the Syrian government’s violent crackdown on popular protests. In addition to hosting Syrian refugees, Lebanon must deal with internally displaced persons, as 1.2 million Lebanese nationals had to leave their homes due to the Israeli war against Hezbollah last autumn.

Lebanon, which has a native population of about five million people, has also since 2019 been suffering the worst economic crisis in its history. Meanwhile, after more than fifty years of Assad family rule, Syria has seen a change in leadership as of last December. Since then, around 173,000 Syrian refugees have voluntarily returned from Lebanon, according to UNHCR figures.

Read AlsoUNHCR: More than 500,000 Syrians have returned to their country since Assad fell

Thousands of new arrivals from Syria

However, the conflict in Syria has not ended entirely. In March alone, over 1,500 people were killed in sectarian-linked armed conflict after a former regime insurgency in the coastal area of the country -- a former Assad regime stronghold -- conducted mass attacks on the new security forces.

During and after these killings, about 40,000 people from the coastal area fled to Lebanon and became new Syrian refugees. UNHCR has announced sharp cuts to aid to Syrians in Lebanon in recent weeks due to the freezing of US financial support, which accounts for 40 percent of its global funding.

"We cannot provide precise figures, but we expect the return of about 200,000 to 300,000 people, depending on the success of the plan," Mitri said, noting that the Lebanese authorities expect to give each Syrian 100 US dollars to return to Syria.

Mitri added that the names of those planning to return would be registered and transportation to Syria would be provided by the Lebanese authorities via buses, or, as an alternative, refugees will have to set the date of their return and provide their own means of return; in the latter case, the refugees would also have the right to 100 US dollars per person.

Read AlsoInternally displaced Syrians long to return home