The latest data from the European Union’s border and coast guard agency Frontex shows that irregular border crossings into the European Union fell by 27 percent in the first four months of 2025 to nearly 47,000.

The number registered is crossing attempts, not individuals, meaning the same person may be registered as crossing a border several times in different locations.

Frontex underlines that the data is preliminary and could still alter slightly.

The declining trend was present on all major routes, noted Frontex, although in different proportions. On the Western Balkans route, the decline stood at 58 percent, whereas on the Central Mediterranean route, it was just three percent.

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According to Frontex, the Central Mediterranean route was the busiest so far this year. In fact, a third of all arrivals into the EU came via that route, from North African countries towards Italy and to a lesser extent Spain and Malta. While there was a sharp year-on-year drop in March, numbers increased again by almost 40 percent year-on-year in April with improved weather conditions.

Bangladeshi nationals are present in large numbers on this route. According to Frontex, the smuggling networks involved "organize the entire journey, making arrangements such as flights and visa applications." Frontex says that the cost of that journey is reported to be between 9,500 and 13,000 euros per person.

The Western Balkans route registered the biggest drop in arrivals. The three top nationalities of people trying to enter the EU without the correct papers over all were Bangladeshi, Afghan and Malian. On the Western Balkan route specifically, Frontex listed people coming from Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan, as those most likely to take that route towards Europe.

The percentage changes were based on the same routes for the same four-month period in 2024.

The data showed that on the eastern Mediterranean route, there was a 30 percent decline, on the eastern land border, a 37 percent decline and through the western Mediterranean, from North Africa towards Spain, there was a ten percent decline.

The West African route towards the Canary Islands, the Spanish archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean, also registered a 34 percent decline. Here, nationals from Mali, Senegal and Guinea are most often using the route, states Frontex.

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Channel route to UK is only route to register an overall increase

The only route that appeared to register an increase was the Channel route towards the United Kingdom. There, according to Frontex data, there was a five percent increase, with 18,120 people attempting or successfully making the crossing to Britain.

On that route, nationals from Eritrea, Afghanistan and Syria are most often attempting to make the crossing, according to Frontex.

The eastern Mediterranean route was the second most frequented route in the first four months of this year, but nevertheless, registered arrivals had dropped by nearly a third compared to the numbers of arrivals in the same period a year ago.

On that route, nationals from Afghanistan, Egypt and Sudan most commonly arrive in Greece.

According to the UN Migration Agency's Missing Migrants' Project, in the first four months of 2025, at least 555 people lost their lives at sea while trying to reach Europe by boat. Over the whole of 2024, that figure stood at 2,300. The actual figure may be much higher, since many boat departures go unregistered. Sometimes those on the boats don’t even tell their relatives when they are setting off, and so it can take months before a relative might realize that their loved one is no longer in contact, or has disappeared.

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