Germany's incoming Interior Minister, conservative Alexander Dobrindt from Germany's CSU party, has outlined plans to toughen border controls and increase the rejection of migrants as part of the new coalition government's stricter stance on immigration.

The new government is set to start its work formally on Tuesday (May 6)*, on Monday (May 5), the last of the cabinet positions were announced by the social democratic party SPD. The CDU/ CSU parties already announced their share of cabinet posts last week.

Upon taking office, Dobrindt emphasized that while there would be no border closures, the number of rejected asylum seekers would rise as part of efforts to curb irregular migration.

"The numbers of illegal migration must come down to achieve both humanity and order, control, clarity and consistency are needed. We are preparing national and European decisions for this," Dobrindt said.

The measures involve intensified checks at Germany's external borders and an increased presence of federal police officers. The move follows an agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD) to tighten border security in response to growing concerns over irregular migration.

Germany lacks police force to manage comprehensive border controls

The border plans, however, have sparked concerns within Germany's police unions, with the German Police Union (GdP) warning of significant staffing shortages.

According to union officials, the current police force is insufficient to manage comprehensive border controls. The GdP suggests that at least 20,000 additional officers would be needed to ensure adequate security without over-stretching resources. Furthermore, the union expressed skepticism over the practicality of "refoulement" — the practice of turning away asylum seekers at the border without a proper review of their cases — citing potential legal challenges under both German and European law. 

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External asylum processing 'unrealistic'

The new government's push for stronger border measures also includes discussions about outsourcing asylum procedures to countries outside the European Union (EU), such as the "third-country" approach. Germany's Interior Ministry recently assessed the viability of this model, reviewing options such as the UK's Rwanda model and Italy's Albania model. Both approaches involve transferring asylum seekers to third countries for processing. However, the ministry’s report – published Sunday – concluded that while such models may be legally feasible, they would be difficult to implement in practice and would not be effective on a large scale.

"All models appear to be legally possible in principle, in some cases after significant legal changes," but in practical terms, they are associated with considerable difficulties in some cases, the report concludes.

Applying third-country models to a large number of asylum seekers is "unrealistic," the ministry added in a statement.

The report also highlighted that the removal of family or residency ties, an important factor in EU asylum reforms, could further complicate the process. 

One model under consideration is a procedure known as the "Away Model," which involves examining asylum claims in transit countries before migrants reach European soil. While Germany's acting Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has acknowledged the potential of third-country cooperation in reducing irregular migration, she also noted the substantial financial and logistical costs, drawing attention to the UK's failed attempt with Rwanda, which ultimately incurred significant expenses.

"Cooperation with third countries can be another building block in limiting irregular migration," Faeser said.

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Serbia migrant route closure prompts decline in Germany arrivals

The debate over border control policies comes as Germany faces a notable decline in asylum applications. In 2023, approximately 229,751 individuals applied for asylum in Germany, a decrease of about 100,000 compared to the previous year. Factors contributing to the decline include the de facto closure of one route through Serbia, which previously allowed more migrants to reach Hungary.

Despite this decline, in the build up to the German election in February, and right across Europe, right-wing and populist parties are blaming many of the economic and social worries of voters on issues like migration, often transforming stricter migration policies into a vote-winner even for more centerist or left-wing parties that might previously have pursued more open-border policies.

As the new coalition government prepares to implement these measures, there are unresolved issues regarding coordination with neighboring countries, especially concerning the legality of turning back asylum seekers at land borders without the agreement of countries like Poland or Austria. The CDU/CSU bloc and SPD disagree on whether such actions should require explicit consent from neighboring states or only consultation. 

Some of Germany's neighbors, including most recently Poland, itself in the throes of a Presidential election, have made it clear that they are not keen on Germany deciding to turn back migrants at its borders.

The future of Germany’s migration policy is shaping up to be a defining issue for the new government, with ongoing debates about balancing national security concerns with humanitarian and human rights obligations under European law.

With Dobrindt's plans expected to take effect soon, the question remains whether these policies will achieve the desired results without placing undue strain on Germany's legal and security infrastructure.

With dpa and KNA

*This article was written on May 5. On May 6, the incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz lost the vote that he was expected to win formally allowing him to take up the post of Chancellor in Germany's new government. He fell short of the expected 316 votes, only securing 310. The German parliament (Bundestag) now has 14 days to either choose another Chancellor candidate or put Merz to a second vote. News outlets report a 'prevailing mood of confusion' over the outcome. There is no limit to the number of votes the parliament can hold. Later on Tuesday, a second vote was held, in which Merz won the majority needed to take over as Germany's next Chancellor.