A number of senior German politicians, including the interior and foreign minister, have spoken out in favor of allowing Syrians to go back to their home country to assess for themselves whether they might want to move back more permanently. But the idea has also attracted skepticism. Meanwhile, the future of close to a million Syrians living in Germany — many as asylum seekers — remains uncertain after the fall of Assad's regime.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has come out in favor of loosening rules on Syrian refugees visiting their country after the fall of the Assad regime last month, without this affecting their protection status.

Ordinarily, people are not allowed to return to their country of origin (with very few exceptions) if they qualify for asylum or any similar kind of protection in Germany.

The reasoning behind this rule is that if people are able to go back home, this would prove that they are not in need of protection from persecution or war, and therefore their protection status should be removed.

However, Faeser has now expressed her view that Syrian refugees in Germany should be allowed a single trip to their country to see changes for themselves, so they can make an informed decision on whether they might voluntarily want to return for good.

The spokesperson for the interior ministry, Maximilian Kall, said in Berlin that the thinking behind this idea was for people to "see for themselves whether houses are still standing, whether family members are still alive with whom they may have lost contact a long time ago, and whether they are really safe in their home country."

The interior ministry added that no change in law would be required to make such exceptions.

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Support and opposition

Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has already made comparable remarks, saying that after the fall of Assad's autocratic rule in Syria, Syrian refugees in Germany should be given an opportunity to understand the situation on the ground and thus to assess if, and when, it might be possible for them to return on a permanent basis.

Baerbock also said that she believed that there would be broad support for this idea.

However, there has also been opposition: The interior minister of the federal state of Bavaria, Joachim Herrmann from the Christian Social Union (CSU) party, said that this "adventurous" plan could "open the floodgates to abuse."

He told Germany's dpa news agency in Munich that a move like this could give the impression that "Syrians themselves could decide whether they still like it at home or not," and that the plan therefore was flawed.

With his party and its sister party, the Christian Democrats, hoping to lead Germany's next government, criticism like this might be taken seriously moving forward.

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No political basis for implementing suggestions

Faeser's and Baerbock's comments are the only public remarks on the matter for the time being. As Germany prepares to hold elections in five weeks' time, it is highly unlikely that any decision on the matter will be taken imminently.

Both Faeser from the Social Democrats and Baerbock from the Greens are part of Germany's governing coalition, which, however, is effectively ruling as a minority government without a mandate at the moment. This follows the split of the third partner, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), from the coalition in November, necessitating an early election be held.

While Faeser's party is the biggest coalition partner at present, it is unlikely that her party will be given the mandate to form the next government, as it is currently trailing in third place according to the polls.

However, the Social Democrats might still join the next government as part of a grand coalition, consisting of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.

Many, however, find the discussion on the future of Syrians living in Germany premature regardless of domestic political developments in the coming weeks, with Syria only beginning to reel from decades of dictatorship and 14 years of civil war.

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A fragile country to return to

According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), 90 percent of the Syrian population still needs humanitarian aid. UN Habitat meanwhile highlights that nearly half of all hospitals are not fully functional. Many daily necessities are scarce, with electricity and water cuts affecting people on an ongoing basis.

According to a World Bank report, 96 percent of Syrians are still living off less than 7 dollars (around 6.75 euros) a day amid growing inflation and currency devaluation.

Still there have been calls across Europe to start returning Syrian nationals to their homeland — not just for a limited visit. Many EU nations meanwhile have frozen the processing of pending asylum applications from Syrians, wanting instead to observe developments in the region in the light of the new powers controlling Syria.

While tens of thousands of Syrians have returned to their country from neighboring Lebanon and from Turkey in the past month, this is not necessarily an indicative trend of what is yet to follow.

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Will Todman, deputy director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank says "(r)ushing the return of millions of Syrians would put even more pressure on Syria at an extremely fragile moment and would undermine the prospect of a successful transition."

"To avoid a broader crisis, donor governments should temper expectations of rapid returns, formulate a comprehensive strategy for safe refugee return, and provide sufficient funding to facilitate an orderly process. It requires time, not rapid-fire edicts," he emphasizes.

Syria's new interim rulers, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which managed to end decades of dictatorship by the Assad dynasty, have so far attempted to continue all government functions while largely ensuring the rule of law, but power struggles — both domestic and those instigated by foreign players — could still ensue.

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One way or another: an uncertain future

Still, some others nevertheless support the idea of Syrians conducting their own fact-finding trips home — pointing out that the same possibility has been afforded Ukrainians from day one. Catherine Woollard, director of the European Council on Refugees and Exiles, highlights that when it comes to such visits, there appear to be double standards across Europe:

"Ukrainians are allowed to go back to Ukraine for short visits, for example to maintain property or to support relatives, without losing their protection status in the EU. A similar approach should be extended towards Syrian refugees. Currently, they would almost certainly lose their protection status," Woollard stressed.

"Allowing short visits to reestablish connections would likely increase return numbers." 

Other EU countries are also considering whether or not exceptions should be made for Syrian refugees. At the time of writing, France, for example, does not allow any travel to Syria, despite the change in regime.

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Meanwhile, questions also remain on how safe Syria will be moving forward, and whether it might not tumble into a different kind of instability in months to come, which people might find difficult to escape from.

Shortly after Assad's fall in December 2024, a German foreign ministry spokesman told reporters that "the fact that the Assad regime has been ended is unfortunately no guarantee of peaceful developments" for the future.

After all, during the rapid fall of the Assad autocracy, tens of thousands of people suffered fresh displacement and dozens were killed, as HTS marched south from Aleppo to the capital, Damascus. For many Syrians, this experience is likely to inform their view of the future.

HTS and their associates have pledged to protect all minorities in the new Syria, but questions remain about their true motivations, given the movement's historic ties with the al-Qaeda terror group.

Just days and weeks after the fall of Assad's regime for example, news organizations were reporting that unverified videos were circulating purporting to show the punishment and killings of Assad forces in uniforms across the country.

In mid-December, the new Syrian leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani reportedly told the Guardian newspaper that "pardons or amnesties would not be granted for implicated individuals related to the Assad regime."

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