Last Wednesday (November 27), the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise offensive against the government forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad, ending four years of relatively static conflict in Syria's civil war.

Then, on Friday, pro-Turkish rebels under the lead of HTS managed to seize Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, as well as scores of surrounding villages.

Some experts now expect a major counter-offensive by government forces, and anticipate the conflict to return to the "high intensity Syrian civil war all over again the next couple of weeks and months," as one analyst told DW this week.

According to the UN's humanitarian agency (OCHA), nearly 50,000 people have been displaced in Syria in the first four days since fighting broke out alone. "The displacement situation remains highly fluid, with partners verifying new figures daily," OCHA said in a statement.

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Increasing death toll

The death toll from the fighting has also been mounting. Over the weekend, at least 25 people were killed in northwestern Syria in air strikes carried out by the Syrian government and Russia, news agency Reuters reported on Monday citing the White Helmets, a Syrian opposition-run rescue service.

Russian and Syrian jets struck targets including the rebel-held city of Idlib in northern Syria on Sunday, according to Reuters referencing military sources. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad reportedly vowed to crush HTS.

Residents in Idlib, the largest city in the HTS-controlled part of Syria, said one attack hit a crowded residential area in the city center. Several healthcare facilities were damaged, the White Helmets said on X, adding that ten children were among the dead in the air strikes in and around Idlib and other targets in rebel-held territory near Aleppo on Sunday.

Around four million people live in makeshift tents and dwellings in the city near the Turkish border, many times the city's population.

The Syrian army and its ally Russia say they target the hideouts of insurgent groups and deny attacking civilians, Reuters reported.

According to the White Helmets, a total of 56 people including 20 children died from Syrian and Russian strikes in the five days from November 27 through December 1.

The OHCHR office on Tuesday spoke of "dozens upon dozens" of civilian casualties from attacks by government forces and HTS.

After Syria's population had started pushing for democratic change in 2011, rebel groups were initially successful in their battle against government forces. Yet in 2015, Assad's troops were able to stop the offensive when Assad's allies Russia and Iran stepped up their military support. In the following years, countless airstrikes on Assad's opponents have helped the regime's troops recapture most of the territory it had originally lost.

Pro-Turkish HTS was labeled a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2018. It was previously affiliated with al-Qaida, another US-designated terror outfit.

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Tense humanitarian situation, cross-border displacement

Around 16 million people in the civil war country are dependent on humanitarian aid, a spokesperson for Germany's Federal Foreign Office said Monday (December 2), adding that this number could now rise, according to Reuters.

The spokesman did not want to speculate about a new refugee movement from Syria.

Germany is supporting the reception capacities in Syria's neighbor Lebanon in order to absorb new refugees, Reuters reported citing information from Germany's Development Ministry. The Bundestag recently allocated 60 million euros in funding for this effort.

The situation in the region has been extremely volatile since the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel last year.

More than half a million people have fled Lebanon to neighboring Syria since the conflict between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia significantly broadened in September, UN figures revealed last month. According to OCHA, around two thirds of the refugees coming from Lebanon were Syrian and around one-third were Lebanese citizens.

Already before the latest escalation in the conflict with Israel, around 1.5 million Syrian refugees were living in Lebanon, according to government figures. Most of them had arrived in Lebanon, a country with a population of six million people, after 2011 as a result of the Syrian civil war. 

In a joint statement, the United States, France, Germany, and Britain on Monday urged "de-escalation by all parties and the protection of civilians and infrastructure to prevent further displacement and disruption of humanitarian access".

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Debates about deportations, taking in refugees

The boldest rebel assault on Assad's forces in years will presumably affect the years-long discussions in EU countries about whether parts of Syria are safe for deportation.

In Germany, the Federal Ministry of the Interior has been examining for some time whether deportations to Syria would be possible again as the situation in the country had somewhat calmed down in recent years.

The debate mainly focused on allowing the deportation of serious criminals and terrorists to Syria again. But in August, a German court declared that the Middle Eastern country is safe enough and that subsidiary protection is not warranted, the first such ruling since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011.

But the latest developments are now being taken into account, news agency dpa reported on Monday (December 2) citing a statement by the Interior Ministry. "Deportations of foreigners who are required to leave the country are only conceivable if the security situation on the ground permits this, all legal requirements are met and there are actual possibilities for carrying out deportation measures."

Some politicians meanwhile spoke out against taking in Syrians displaced by the latest fighting, arguing that neighboring states are responsible.

"Should there be refugee movements due to the advance of jihadist groups in northern Syria, these must take place within safe areas of the country or in neighboring states," the conservative CDU's domestic policy spokesman, Alexander Throm, told the Funke Media Group.

On Tuesday, the Pro Asyl rights group in Germany called for a nationwide deportation ban to Syria. "Combat operations, human rights violations, and killings happen on a daily basis. Syria is not safe," stated spokesperson Tareq Alaows. He called on the conference of federal and state interior ministers, scheduled for Wednesday, to implement a deportation stop.

Plan to declare Syria safe to face setbacks

Discussions at the political level about deportations to Syria also occurred in the Netherlands. According to Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf, the Dutch government under Prime Minister Dick Schoof for years wanted to follow the example of other countries and declare Syria (partially) safe, so that Syrians would no longer receive residence permits and large groups would be able to return.

In light of the recent escalation, "this already shaky part of the government's asylum concept will probably come to nothing for the time being," De Telegraaf wrote last week.

Four years after the Syrian war broke out in 2011, more than one million asylum seekers arrived in the EU, many of them Syrian.

with Reuters, AFP, dpa

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