The German chancellor is about to meet with Kenyan President William Ruto on the eve of marking Ruto's two years in office. During that meeting in Berlin on September 13, the two countries hope to strengthen their bilateral relations, including on the subject of migration.

German Chancellor Scholz wants to return more failed asylum seekers from Kenya to their country of origin, and will be finalizing a pact with the Kenyan President to this end. The document will be signed by German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser and her Kenyan counterpart, Musalia Mudavadi.

A similar scenario is planned for Sunday (September 15), when Scholz is due to visit Uzbekistan. It is not entirely clear yet whether the deal to be signed with Uzbekistan will also affect Afghan nationals who had been living in the Central Asian country before seeking asylum in Germany.

Germany already has similar arrangements in place with the governments of India, Georgia and Morocco, and is hoping to sign further such agreements in the future with additional states, with negotiations already being held with Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Ghana, Colombia and the Philippines.

However, none of the above-mentioned countries rank highly among the countries of origin of irregular immigrants coming to Germany. According to Statista, only Colombia appears in the top ten.

Also read: Under the radar: The growing wave of Latin American asylum seekers fleeing to Europe

Growing number of bilateral return agreements

As the public debate on migration rages on in Germany, the government is hoping to introduce measures to tighten its grip on the situation. 

In addition to introducing tougher border checks and quicker deportation arrangements, the government is also planning to sign a series of returns agreements with safe countries of origin -- like Kenya and Uzbekistan.

However, the issue of repatriating rejected asylum seekers from safe countries of origin is only going to have a marginal impact on regulating immigration to Germany, as most people applying for asylum in Germany come from unsafe places.

Syria and Afghanistan lead the list of people seeking protection in Germany, with other countries like Iraq, Iran and Somalia also taking up prominent spots in the top-ten list of countries of origin, according to Statista.

The only country with a high asylum rejection rate on the list due to its overall safety is Turkey, which takes up the third spot in asylum application numbers; but even in the case of Turkey, there are many individuals who are ultimately granted protection in Germany on account of suffering political persecution in their home country.

This statistical data does not include Ukrainian war refugees in Germany, who under EU law can continue to enter and leave the country as the war in their home country continues. 

Also read: Germany: Deportations up by 30%

Deportations to Syria and Afghanistan

Germany meanwhile is also contemplating signing limited deals with Syria and Afghanistan -- the two main countries of origin among people lodging asylum claims in Germany.

In Syria, certain regions could be considered as safe, where law and order have been restored for several years while the civil war technically is still continuing elsewhere.

Also read: German court rules there is 'no general danger' to civilians in Syria

In the case of Afghanistan, deportations and rejections of asylum claims were suspended when the Taliban returned to power in 2021, immediately undoing the country's advances in human rights over the preceding 20 years. 

Deportations of Syrian and Afghan nationals can already be carried out under certain circumstances.

Germany's Residence Act stipulates that deportations to countries with a record of human rights abuses can be executed if and when a foreign citizen "endangers public security and order, the free democratic basic order or other significant interests of the Federal Republic of Germany." 

In concrete terms, this applies to convicted offenders who have committed crimes "against life, physical integrity, sexual self-determination or property." 

Incitement to hatred and membership in a criminal or terrorist organization are also considered grounds for deportation.

Repeated visits back home have also in certain instances across the EU resulted in a withdrawal of asylum status.

Also read: Germany to examine asylum processing in third countries

Each case processed by BAMF

For many years, Iraq was also among the top countries of origin for asylum seekers coming to Germany. 

After the end of the reign of terror by the so-called "Islamic State" (IS), Iraq is largely considered a safe country of origin again, with only a few new asylum requests being approved on account of individual merit.

Whether deportation to any country of origin can be considered legally possible is chiefly determined by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).

In individual cases, appeals at various court levels can still result in a reversal of a deportation order, but these decisions cannot be regarded as case law or precedents for other cases.

with dpa