The current state of Britain’s asylum system is depressing, according to an assessment by the UK’s Refugee Council published in June. It is characterized by "costs, chaos and human misery," they say.

The charitable body, which works to advocate for, and inform, migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in the UK, has identified a list of challenges that will face whichever new government may win power following the general election on July 4.

Also watch: Targeting migrants to win votes in Britain

Asylum processing backlog

One of the main challenges, according to the Refugee Council, is trying to reduce the backlog of asylum claims. At the end of March 2024, nearly 120,000 men, women and children were waiting for an initial decision.

This backlog, says the Refugee Council, has been made even worse, with waiting times longer, because of the current government’s migration policy.

The Illegal Migration Act, passed in 2023, in essence declared it illegal for people to enter the UK without papers, and therefore sought to nullify their right to claim asylum because they had already committed an 'illegal act' through the way they arrived in the UK.

The act, says the Refugee Council, "if fully enacted would lead to the asylum system being effectively shut down. By the end of 2024, this would result in more than 115,000 people who are in the UK being left permanently stranded, with their claims deemed inadmissible."

According to the Refugee Council, in the last year, 99 percent of all people who crossed the Channel in a small boat went on to apply for asylum. 96 percent of those are still waiting for a decision on those claims. If they had been processed, about 73 percent of them would have been expected to have been granted asylum based on the current success rate of asylum decisions.

Also read: Are UK asylum policies having the desired deterrent effect?

Increase in arrivals expected over the summer

Partly because of the time of year, summer, which brings generally more clement weather, and partly perhaps because of the expectations that might be created if a different government is put in place, the numbers of those attempting to cross the Channel in the months following the election are expected to increase.

In 2022, a little over a third of all arrivals occurred in the months of August and September, noted the Refugee Council. In 2023, those two months also accounted for a third of crossings for the entire year. By the end of 2024, if the rate of crossings continues along the same rates as the two previous years, the Refugee Council predicts that around 40,300 people may have crossed the Channel.

Reduce numbers in hotel accommodation

Data from the end of March 2024 suggests that at least 35,686 people waiting for their asylum claims to be processed were being housed in hotels in the UK. Over half of those 19,550 come from countries with asylum grant rates standing at at least 80 percent success. The Refugee Council says this is costing the government daily 2.9 million pounds.

Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, Eritreans, Syrians and Sudanese are the top six nationalities being accommodated in hotels, according to the Refugee Council. People from those countries have initial grant rates of at least 80 percent.

Asylum appeals expected to increase

Whichever new government wins Thursday’s (July 4) election, is expected to be hit by tens of thousands of asylum appeals. This number, says the Refugee Council, is also expected to grow. Data from the end of March this year suggests that there are at least 27,000 appeals waiting in the system, and that figure had quadrupled from only 7,500 a year earlier.

Also read: UK asylum seeker accommodation costs rocket, despite government promises

Safe routes

A new government should also examine the viability of the safe routes that the UK has in place for asylum. According to various charities, including the Refugee Council, those already in place are not only few, but barely function, and are beset by delays.

In mid-June, a report by RAMFEL, a non-profit service in east London offering immigration advice to migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, explored how the "UK’s family reunion system systematically fails to provide safe routes for refugees."

Family reunification 'is not fit for purpose'

RAMFEL has been conducting casework for at least 14 refugees, some of whom are trying to bring minors to join them in the UK. They say that "many people in conflict zones are prevented from even applying for family reunion as they cannot attend a Visa Application Center (VAC) to enroll their biometrics, a mandatory requirement."

According to data from February 2024, cited by RAMFEL, the UK government had only exempted one person from this requirement, despite there being no operational VAC in Sudan, Gaza and Afghanistan, three countries from where many people are hoping to reach the UK via the family reunion route.

RAMFEL also found that the current government’s default position was to refuse 83 percent of applications between April and September 2023 on one route, and on another family reunion route, their refusal rate reportedly stood at 96 percent between 2017 and 2020.

Also read: UK family reunification system is broken, warn leading charities

RAMFEL said of the 14 people they worked with over the last year, 13 of whom were children, only two had been granted UK visas, with many more stranded in Sudan, or having been forced to attempt dangerous journeys towards the UK because they felt they could no longer wait for the legal process to be followed to the end.

Nick Beales, head of campaigning for RAMFEL said in a press statement: "The UK's family reunion system is not fit for purpose and needs overhauling." Beales said that those in conflict zones had "no choice but to undertake dangerous journeys."

RAMFEL also called on the new government to "create a workable application process that allows those with UK family ties to swiftly and safely secure family reunion visas," from day one.

Application process from outside the country

The Refugee Council adds that currently, there is no way for someone to apply for asylum in the UK without first arriving in the country. The existing resettlement schemes saw just 1,212 refugees arrive in the UK in the year from March 2022 to March 2023. These figures were almost five times fewer than those arriving via resettlement prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Deportation policy

Finally, the Refugee Council says that a new government should address Britain's deportation policy. They say that the number of repatriations has increased in recent years, three in four are voluntary, but the number of returns is actually lower.

The Refugee Council hopes that a new government might put legislation in place to repeal the Illegal Migration Act and restore the right to asylum. They also hope that the new government will streamline the asylum process, making it possible to quickly grant those who come from countries where the grant rate is particularly high.

Repealing the Rwanda policy

The Labour Party, which according to many polls is expected to win the election, has promised to repeal the Rwandan policy. If they do win power and do end that policy, the Refugee Council has asked that they "immediately process all the asylum claims that had been paused due to the applicants being in the cohort of people targeted for removal to Rwanda."

According to the Refugee Council, at least 5,700 people had their asylum claims paused as they were candidates for removal to Rwanda. Some of those in that group, say the Refugee Council, have been waiting for a decision on their asylum claims for two and a half years "despite there being very little realistic prospect of them being removed to Rwanda during that time."

Once the new government is in place, the new Home Secretary, states the Refugee Council, "will have responsibility for fixing an asylum system that faces a myriad of challenges caused by unworkable legislation that has only served to make the process more complex and unwieldy."

They hope the new government will create a "national refugee strategy…that gives people a fair hearing in the UK and delivers order and compassion."