British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak continues to double down on his pledge to cut irregular migrant arrivals, as the UK enters 2024 with the declared expectation of elections to be held in the second half of the year.

Sunak, whose Conservative Party is trailing far behind the opposition Labour Party in the polls with only 24%, hopes to win over at least some voters by proving that he is succeeding in curbing arrival numbers, even if this means more public spending on immigration during a time of inflation and economic stagnation.

But how much of his promises can he deliver, going by his track record?

Progress -- and regress

After announcing that he would prioritize the stopping of small boat arrivals across the English Channel, there has been a 36% drop in 2023 compared to the previous year, according to UK government data -- with under 30,000 people making it across the world's busiest shipping lane.

Sunak also succeeded in meeting -- and even exceeding -- another challenge, and that is to clear part of the backlog of asylum application claims, which the UK has been sitting on for years in many cases.

Pledging to catch up on 92,000 asylum cases by the end of 2023, the UK actually managed to process over 112,000 cases in that period, with two out of three applications resulting in a positive decision.

It is assumed that at least another 65,000 cases need to be cleared before the government can truly claim that it has addressed all pending asylum applications. In the meantime, a number of asylum seekers awaiting decisions meanwhile remain -- literally -- untraceable.

However, another cornerstone of his immigration policy -- the outsourcing of asylum procedures to Rwanda -- has been facing hurdle after hurdle, much to Sunak's chagrin.

Rwanda-plan deemed illegal

The government's plan to send at least some migrants to Rwanda for processing and resettling has repeatedly run into legal issues. Most recently, the UK Supreme Court ruled the scheme illegal under international law.

However, Sunak last week said that he is "focused on delivering on my commitment to stop the boats and get flights off the ground to Rwanda." The Conservative government has been failing to deliver on the latter part of that pledge for almost two years, under the leadership of three prime ministers and as many home secretaries.

The scheme, which the British government says is intended to deter migrants from coming to the UK, has already cost the UK at least £290 million (€336 million), while migrant relocation flights to Rwanda have remained grounded.

Britain meanwhile spends over ten times that amount at present on asylum processes, with much of the funds being spent on refugee and migrant housing.

Also read: UK government pledges to push Rwanda plan through at all costs

Sunak confident deal will work

In an interview with the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, Sunak said about all his government pledges that "(o)f course there's more to do, but progress is being made. The country is now pointing in the right direction."

"And if we stick to the plan and we can continue to deliver that long-term change the country needs ... that's ultimately how we'll provide everybody with the peace of mind that the future is going to be better for their children."

In the interview, he also expressed confidence that he would still manage to see the Rwanda plan through -- without delivering any details on how exactly he would accomplish this.

Britain meanwhile has signed other agreements -- primarily with Turkey, Albania and Italy -- to fight irregular migration, which are yet to yield results.

Disagreement with France

However, confidence in Sunak and his policies is tanking -- not just at home.

According to a French report, Britain is not sufficiently coordinating its efforts to reduce the number of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats with France -- despite the recent dip in arrivals.

The report published by France's Court of Accounts, which is in charge of auditing the use of public funds, said that France was "struggling to develop operational cooperation arrangements" with the UK.

It criticized in particular the lack of coordination in a joint intelligence unit created in 2020 to fight people smuggling and thus reduce the number of people crossing the Channel. The report found that in 2022, it dismantled only seven irregular migration networks.

The document further stated that "(t)he relationship between France and the UK is therefore unbalanced in terms of information and intelligence exchange."

The head of the Court of Account, Pierre Moscovici, said he also recommended a better organization of border guards and police to make border operations more efficient.

Also read: Paris prosecutors take over investigation into migrant Channel deaths

Spending more, achieving less?

The UK meanwhile reacted to the paper, with the Home Office saying that the report was "based on out-of-date information and does not accurately reflect our current working relationship, including intelligence sharing, with France."

"We continue to work closely with French partners at all levels, helping to drive forward improvements in the prevention of crossing attempts, both on the beaches and long before they reach them."

Britain has repeatedly tried to work more closely together with France in deterring and intercepting migrants -- a feat made more difficult by the UK's 2020 departure from the European Union, known commonly as Brexit.

From 2018 to 2022, France received €222 million as part of a bilateral agreement to curb boat migration on the English Channel.

Last March, Sunak pledged France another €541 million for the years 2023 to 2026 -- roughly 2.5 times more than the previous funds.

Fractured views all around

Many lawmakers in his Conservative Party are now beginning to find this kind of expenditure too extreme, as they try to make the party more attractive for the upcoming elections by focusing on promises to cut taxes -- instead of raising public spending.

With his party growing increasingly fractured, some lawmakers have even threatened to seek a no-confidence vote in hopes of ousting the prime minister unless he were to join their quest to cut further taxes.

With so many variables in Sunak's political future, a general election might be the only way forward to succeed in reading the public mood in the current immigration debate. With so much uncertainty, the election may just have to come sooner than the prime minister's preferred date in October.

Also read: Families kept apart by UK visa rules

With Reuters, AFP, AP, dpa