Poland’s recent elections were praised as the return of Poland into the fold of the European Union when the liberal opposition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) party won the majority of the vote. Tusk’s leadership will be a change from the Eurosceptic, conservative nationalism of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, but the new administration will not necessarily mend bridges with the EU over migration, experts think.

The Law and Justice (PiS) government often tussled with the EU over its governing methods, and over its opposition to a solidarity mechanism for relocating migrants throughout the EU. As the incoming government gears toward forming a heterogenous coalition of the opposition, the question of Poland’s future stance on migration "exists on several levels," said Jérôme Heurtaux, professor and specialist on regime changes and democratic transitions.

PiS's discredit, KO's smokescreen

"The PiS government made a mistake with the visa scandal [a series of Polish work visas granted more quickly in exchange for bribes] and their discredit served as a smokescreen for Civic Platform," said Heurtaux. 

Tusk immediately seized upon the case which happened amid the election campaign. "[This is] probably Poland's biggest scandal of the 21st century (. . .) Hundreds of thousands of people with Polish visas have been smuggled into our country," Heurtaux added.

During the pre-election campaign, "Tusk never distinguished himself from the ruling party's policy on migration," said Heurtaux. "He blasted the incompetence of PiS, he didn’t blame them for their anti-migration policy."

Tusk’s party went on to claim victory in the October 15 parliamentary elections and is currently forming a new administration composed of the three mainstream opposition groups – the centrist KO, center-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga) and The Left (Lewica).

"There is no global perception on where the future government stands on migration," said Heurtaux. "None of the parties of the future coalition have proposed solutions to the three major migration issues in Poland today: the Polish-Belarusian border, help for Ukrainian refugees, and the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum."

Also read: Poland's ruling party 'instrumentalizes' migrants for electoral gain

'No coherent migration program in KO'

In a detailed investigation on each political party’s stance on migration, the Polish media OKO.press wrote, "There is no coherent migration program in KO. Nothing at all." Tusk announced during a pre-election debate that KO would create a program for Ukrainian refugees, but there was no further information, added the media.

For Andrzej Bobinski, the managing director of Polityka Insight, “there are few votes to be won and a lot of votes to be lost," for Polish leaders trying to elaborate a migration strategy in the future.

"Poland still has 7.5 million people who voted for PiS. [The future government] won’t make any big changes to PiS positions. They will make changes through a slow evolution, talking to Europe and Brussels and saying, ‘give us some leeway, we need to figure out our domestic and internal problems'."

Even within the future coalition, dissent on migration is highly likely. "The Left is somewhat open toward migration," said Heurteux, pointing out that the party had agreed to the EU Migration Pact, and that it wanted to resolve the situation along the border with Belarus where pushbacks occur and the border fence is causing injuries.

While on the campaign trail, Tusk said he appreciated the work of humanitarians in eastern Poland. But, "when you become prime minister, responsible for security, you are not a humanitarian or activist for migrants. You are responsible for the security and territorial integrity. And these are two different roles."

For the Third Way and KO, the approach to migration is likely to be not only security but economic-based. "They will accept migrants only when there is an economic reason to do so," said Heurteux. "Within the coalition, the challenge will be to find a consensus between The Left and the two other parties," he added.

Also read: Polish film challenges official narrative on Belarus border crisis

An increasingly politicized Polish border guard

The ruling coalition will also have to contend with the increasingly politicized Polish border guard. “The border guard has become a very important element in the fight in this country”, said Bobinksi. The group is traditionally more conservative and very "pro-Pis", said the political analyst.

For this reason, “it would be political suicide to take down the wall along the border with Belarus,” said Bobinski. The backlash sparked by Agnieszka Holland’s recent film “The Green Border” on the humanitarian crisis along the Polish-Belarusian border provides a hint at what the new ruling government would experience if it made any big changes to migration policy.

For all of its anti-migrant rhetoric, PiS was responsible for bringing in many labor migrants, and the new government may be pushed to do the same. “A lot of Ukrainian men who were previously doing the heavy work in Poland went home to fight in the war”, said Bobinski. “Maybe the debate can start here: through labor migration”, he added.

Also read: Migrants to Europe face 'inhuman' pushbacks — report

Not a revolution but an alternation of power

Mariusz Kowalski, a professor at the Centre for East European studies at the University of Warsaw, agreed: "the majority of elites from liberal and conservative circles believe that if Poland doesn’t take in migrants, the economy will suffer." In the future, PiS and the extreme-right Confederation party will almost certainly attack the new ruling government for whatever position it takes on migration, he predicted.

Tusk's victory doesn't represent "a revolution" but rather "an alternation of power", said Heurtaux. With the three coalition parties themselves composed of different parties, at least nine different parties will need to sit down to discuss any serious changes to migration policy. "It’s going to take a lot of time, political good will and finesse, especially with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East," said Bobinski.

Also read: German police intercept smugglers at Polish border