Opinion polls in the lead-up to the German elections left no doubt that the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party was going to enter the Bundestag and shake up German politics. However, seeing the young party emerge on third place, with voters of all major parties migrating to the AfD, raises questions about the future direction of German politics – especially with regard to migrant policies.

The AfD doesn't mince its words when it comes to what kind of Germany it envisions, and what role foreigners would take in it. Its list of policy statements says: "The AfD is committed to German as the predominant culture," adding that the AfD views multiculturalism "as a serious threat to social peace and the survival of the nation state as a cultural unit."

The AfD isn't the first party in post-World War II history to equate foreign influences with enemies of the state. Even though there are a number of checks and balances enshrined in German law to limit the participation of extremist movements in politics, including a 5-percent threshold that any party has to overcome in order to send representative to the Bundestag, various movements and political parties have repeatedly tried to move German politics further to the right and away from its pluralistic ideals. The AfD, however, is the first right-populist party to gain such widespread support.

How did far-right parties develop in Germany after World War II?

As German democracy evolved, so did its standards on ensuring that extremist voices would have a place in mainstream politics. While the first few parliaments of the Federal Republic of Germany still included a number small parties that leaned on the racist and xenophobic legacies of Adolf Hitler's NSDAP (National Socialist German Workers' Party), such as the DP (German Party) and the DKP/DRP (German Conservative Party/German Justice Party), by the early 1960s, rightwing extremist movements had mostly been pushed to the fringes of society, as Germany continued to rebuild.

Xenophobia and racism weren't major issues in those early days of the Federal Republic – even for those rightwing groups – as the main focus was to rebuild the country. This endeavor required additional manpower, which increasingly was imported from abroad in the form of "guest workers" (Gastarbeiter). Initially, these migrant workers came mainly from Italy and Greece but soon, Turkish laborers started to provide the bulk of workers who would go on to provide the engine behind West Germany's "Wirtschaftswunder" (the so-called "economic miracle" of resurrecting the country out of the rubbles of World War II).

The 1960s and 70s saw the beginnings of multiculturalism in Germany, even though guest workers and Germans hardly mixed in its early days. There was some political opposition to this first wave of large-scale immigration: The DRP wing of the DKP/DRP rebranded itself in 1964 as NPD (National Democratic Party of Germany), pursuing nationalist policies and mainly attracting various factions of neo-Nazis as their main followers over the years.

Throughout those years, federal German politics remained staunchly in the hands of three parties: the left-of-center SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), the right-of-center Union, which consists of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany) and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU (Christian Social Union in Bavaria), plus the business-friendly FDP (Free Democratic Party). Though their stances on migration may have varied none of them presented themselves as staunch opponents of immigration in and of itself.

By the 1980s, the political landscape in Germany started to change, with a new party, the Greens, slowly gaining traction and adding to the three-party political landscape that German voters had come to take for granted. A new right-wing party, the Republikaner (Republican) also came to the fore around the same time. Running on a similar populist sentiment as the AfD later would, the Republikaner party sought to keep German traditions and values alive in the face of growing immigration, which the party thought was harmful to Germany. Their support remained around 2 percent throughout the 1990s, even when a number of xenophobic attacks rocked the recently reunified country and hinted at a growing far-right momentum. Over the years, however, the party lost its support, as other groups (chiefly the NPD and later the AfD) later started to attract erstwhile followers of the Republikaner.

How does the AfD differ from other far-right parties in the past?

The AfD has less than five years of history to look back on. The party was founded in early 2013 initially as a movement that was chiefly opposed to the Euro. The Eurosceptic AfD fell just short of entering the Bundestag that same year, recording 4.7 percent of the vote. Immigration wasn't the party's most important issue at the time though they were far from welcoming strangers from other cultures.

With the refugee crisis of 2015 unfolding, the AFD started to attract anti-immigrant supporters – in line with the views of a number of senior party members. Realizing that there was a certain growth potential, the AfD became a voice for those who were opposed to Chancellor Angela Merkel's open-door refugee policy. The majority of AfD support came from east Germany, where economic disadvantages in many places continue provide a stark contrast to life in west Germany – even a quarter of a century after reunification. Many east Germans feel that the support given to refugees should instead benefit them.

The AfD's success was also built on its populist sentiments. Simplifying complex political issues, the party tried to appeal to a broad range of disenfranchised voters. In its election campaign, the AfD painted migrants of Muslim background as its main antagonist, claiming that Islam is incompatible with German values. Its posters featured divisive slogans like "Burkhas? We prefer bikinis."

"The AfD firmly opposes Islamic practice which is directed against our liberal-democratic constitutional order, our laws, and the Judeo-Christian and humanist foundations of our culture," the party says in its list of policy statements, adding in a bold headline: "Islam does not belong to Germany."

What does the future hold for the AfD?

The AfD may be celebrating its relative victory but that victory may be short-lived. Only few of its members have ever held public offices and know how politics work. The party was hoping to be the strongest force in the opposition; however, with the SPD's ruling out of another Grand Coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU, the recently emboldened AfD was dealt an initial blow on election night already. Though the AfD is still set to enter the Bundestag as the third-strongest party, the SPD will now likely lead the opposition, which comes with its own set of responsibilities and portfolios. Regardless of its lack of clout in the Bundestag, AfD co-chair Alexander Gauland already announced that his party would make things difficult for all involved: "We will hound Merkel or whomever. And we will take back our country and our people." That should be a challenging task, however, for Gauland and company, as they have 615 members of the Bundestag staunchly pitted against them.

But the question remains whether the anti-immigrant party will be strong enough to live up to its word: despite entering the Bundestag with 94 seats, infighting and fragmentation are already surfacing as key problems with the party. AfD poster-girl Frauke Petry announced the day after the election that she would not become a member of the Bundestag after the party's success at the polls; other senior members responded by suggesting that she should leave the party if she won't represent it in the Bundestag.

Right-wing populists often have a tendency to disintegrate on the long run, as leadership issues and infighting seem to eat away at their core. The UK's UKIP party is barely functional after failing miserably at the ballot boxes since the Brexit referendum. In Poland and Hungary, right-wing governments have been facing considerable protests this year and are clinging on to their mandates to govern. France and the Netherlands saw the rise and fall of charismatic right-wing leaders, who failed to mobilize enough voters to create anything close to the kind of seismic difference they had set out to.

It may try to make politics hell for all other parties in the Bundestag but if the AfD is anything like its ideological brethren across Europe, migrants in Germany will hopefully have little to nothing to worry about.