The EU border agency Frontex said in an annual risk analysis published on Monday (September 4) that migrant arrivals are expected to rise this year and the next, after a clear increase in 2022 as well.

The main problem, the analysis showed, is the world geopolitical situation and especially the economy.

'Migrant smuggling reaching new heights'

Frontex's analysis points to "developments on the ground" in various countries of origin and transit. These developments, driven by "global macroeconomic factors" such as persistent inflation and global recession are expected to "negatively impact" the socioeconomic conditions of large populations. As a consequence, Frontex anticipates a rise in migration flows towards Europe.

This situation will in turn enrich those profiting off others' desperation, who make their fortunes from the growing number of arrivals, fueling what Frontex calls the "black market of hope".

Europol has also noted a that the market for migrant smuggling services into and within the EU has reached new heights, with economic recessions, climate-related environmental emergencies, conflicts, and demographic pressures in many origin countries contributing to this surge.

More connections between central and eastern Med

There also seem to be worrisome variations on the modus operandi of smugglers.

For the years 2023 and 2024, Frontex predicts heightened migration activity along the eastern Mediterranean and central Mediterranean routes, with these routes likely accounting for a larger share of total migration flows to the EU's external borders.

Part of this phenomenon will likely be the growing use of corridors from Turkey, Lebanon, and Syria towards the central Mediterranean, it noted, blurring the distinction between the eastern and central routes.

The increase in air connections between these regions has already led to migrants, including Syrians who were previously predominantly on the eastern route, using routes through Libya, Frontex said.

North African, sub-Saharan Migrants

On migration flows running northwards from Libya and Tunisia there will also be a growing number of North African migrants and ones from sub-Saharan countries facing worrisome outlooks for their economic, security, human rights and climate situations in 2023/2024, the analysis noted.

Frontex has called on EU member states and institutions to work together as closely as possible both within the bloc's borders and outside of them.

The agency emphasizes the need for greater collaboration across the Mediterranean and renewed bilateral and multilateral commitments to enabling third-country authorities to combat migrant smuggling within their territories. These measures will help mitigate the influx of migrants, the agency claims.