Scaring Poland: that was probably the goal of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin when they met in St. Petersburg on July 21. Lukashenko said that mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group, currently based in Belarus, would like to make "a trip to Warsaw and Rzeshov." 

Polish politicians and the Polish media reacted promptly. Additionally, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki commented on the possibility that the Wagner Group may be on its way toward the Polish border. Morawiecki stated that he has information that more than a hundred Wagner Group mercenaries were advancing toward the Suwalki gap, which is on the border of Lithuania and Poland between Kaliningrad and Belarus. 

Meanwhile, allegations are circulating online about how Wagner mercenaries are already allegedly entering Poland almost unnoticed.    

What did Poland's prime minister say?

Prime Minister Morawiecki also took up the issue on July 29 during a visit to a defense factory in Gliwice. There, during a press conference, he made two assumptions about the Wagner mercenaries in Belarus. 

First, Morawiecki said, "They will probably also try to enter Poland by posing as illegal immigrants." Secondly, Wagner mercenaries would "probably" disguise themselves as Belarusian border guards and "help illegal immigrants enter Polish territory in order to destabilize Poland."  

These claims are mere conjectures about the future without any evidence. The right-wing populist ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party consistently attracts attention with anti-migrant claims.  

Meanwhile, political experts say that Russia's and Belarus' threats against Poland are staged. Russia, they say, is trying to reduce support for Ukraine with its threats against Poland. 

"Both Putin and Lukashenko are trying to influence them, including with threats, so that voters swing in the 'right' direction, namely toward those forces that are saying as part of their election campaign that Poland's role in the war is wrong, and it is necessary to move away in order to prevent a Third World War," Ryhor Nizhnikau, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute on International Affairs.

Conclusion: There is no evidence that Wagner mercenaries from Belarus are entering Poland disguised as migrants.  

Author: Kathrin Wesolowski

First published: August 1, 2023

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