Syria is not a country capable of repatriating the millions of Syrian refugees who escaped armed violence that erupted over 12 years ago and that rapidly degenerated into a conflict on international proportion: this is what is reiterated among diplomatic circles and Syrian humanitarian organizations a few weeks away from the upcoming International Donors' Conference for Syria in Brussels.

What is truly blocking the possibility of the return of Syrians from Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan is not the direct effect of the war, which continues intermittently only in some regions in the country.

Instead, what is impeding the return is the absence of minimal possibilities allowing refugees to have a dignified life: homes, work, and schools, observers say. To this, a call to arms for all adult males on the part of the government is also to be added, as well as the increasing food insecurity coupled with the lack of basic services: water, electricity, medicines, and fuel.

Socio-economic and political obstacles to repatriation

Compared to the initial years of the conflict in Syria, which began in 2011, the bombings have decreased significantly.

So far the conflict has killed over half a million persons, but in these recent years what has increased exponentially are the kidnappings for extortion, suicides, and the abandoning of infants.

In addition to the socio-economic obstacles to repatriation there are also political ones: many Syrians who escaped are wanted by authorities in their country because they are considered dissidents. Many others, not necessarily regime opposers, have had their homes and land confiscated.

Due to government laws, these Syrians have seen their property rights rejected. Others instead know that if their home was not destroyed or heavily damaged it was occupied by other homeless or by members of the local and foreign militia.

The government in Damascus, represented by President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Russia and Iran and heavily criticized by most Western countries, has recently been re-admitted by the inter-Arabic consensus.

During the last days, Assad, who has returned to being fully recognized as one of the leaders of the region, listened to representatives of Lebanon and Jordan call for the repatriation of Syrian refugees at the Arab League Summit.

Nearly half of the 12 million Syrian refugees are abroad

According to the United Nations, of the 12 million Syrians who had to abandon their homes, nearly half are abroad. Of these, over 3 million are in Turkey, with which Damascus is gradually normalizing relations.

The others are scattered between Lebanon (830 thousand, but Lebanese authorities talk about "2 million") and Jordan (660 thousand) with other smaller communities in Iraq and Egypt.

Diplomatic circles in Beirut underscore how, in view of the Donors' Conference in Brussels on June 15, Syria's neighboring countries over the past weeks have intensified the anti-Syrian refugee rhetoric: both for internal political reasons, coinciding with the end of electoral mandates as is the case in Lebanon and Turkey, but also to ask for additional financial support for Western donor countries.

During his visit to Italy and at the Vatican last week, the outgoing Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Abou Habib, said that the presence of Syrians in Lebanon "threatens the Islamic-Christian balance", leveraging on the religious and identity rhetoric which is very common in Europe as well.

Lebanon, a country on the verge of economic collapse, without a government that is crippled and without a head of state, has witnessed the attempts of many Syrians, Lebanese, and Palestinians to reach Italy irregularly over the course of the past two years.

Syrian refugees in Lebanon, according to local observers, risk their lives at sea rather than return to Syria.