Growing political repression and economic problems, including ultra-high inflation, have led to large numbers of people fleeing Turkey in recent months. If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is re-elected this Sunday, the flow of asylum seekers will increase, a migration expert in Germany has warned.

Haci-Halil Uslucan, head of the Center for Turkish Studies and Integration Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen, says the outcome of the election on May 14 will have "a significant impact" on migration.

"It is anticipated that a relection of Erdogan will mean an even more repressive system, and more people will leave Turkey," he told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung on Saturday (May 6).

For some people, the decision whether to leave will depend on the election result, Uslucan explained: "If a shift occurs and the opposition wins, then they will stay. Otherwise they will leave Turkey."

Millions eligible to vote

For the first time in 20 years in power, Erdogan is facing the real prospect of defeat. Some polls suggest he is neck and neck with his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, while others show his electoral alliance trailing behind the opposition.

According to official figures, over 64.1 million people are eligible to vote in these elections. Among them are reportedly 167,000 Syrians, as well as 23,000 from Afghanistan, 21,000 from Iran, 16,000 from Iraq and 6,000 from Libya.

For the more than 3.4 million Turkish citizens who live abroad and are eligible to vote, the polls opened on April 27. They include around 1.5 million people living in Germany, according to the state broadcaster Deutschlandfunk. At the last elections in 2018, people with Turkish roots are said to have voted overwhelmingly for President Erdogan.

Seeking asylum in Germany

There has been a sharp rise in the number of Turkish nationals fleeing to Germany to seek asylum. Between January and September 2022, German federal police said the number increased by 254% compared with the same period the previous year.

In the last four months, 13,206 Turkish nationals applied for asylum in Germany, according to the office of migration and refugees (BAMF), making them the third-largest group after those from Syria and Afghanistan.

A large proportion who have no safe options available to them travel via the so-called Balkan route, a dangerous journey for which they have to pay as much as £8,000 per person to people smugglers.

In recent times it has mostly been intellectuals who have fled Turkey, according to Uslucan. Those critical of Erdogan or who do not toe the government line have increasingly been the targets of laws undermining freedom of expression. Last October, Sebnem Korur Fincanci, the president of the Turkish Medical Association, which has exposed human rights violations, was arrested and accused of spreading terrorist propaganda.

Young people in Turkey report that they would leave the country if they could. Those who make it to Germany say they see no future in their homeland, said Dündar Kelloglu, a lawyer and board member of the Refugee Council of Lower Saxony.

"They have no hope," Kelloglu told DW. He too predicted that the number of refugees from Turkey will continue to rise.

With epd