Fewer refugee boats are seen these days in the Eastern Mediterranean - for a reason
Fewer refugee boats are seen these days in the Eastern Mediterranean - for a reason

A sharp decline in numbers of refugee arrivals in Greece over the past year shows that the EU-Turkey refugee deal is achieving its objectives. While Greece benefits from the relief, migrants opt to seek other sea routes to reach Italian shores instead.

Disagreements between Turkey and EU keep affecting bilateral relationships, with the prospect of EU membership for Turkey becoming an increasingly elusive one. EU leaders have repeatedly criticized Turkey over its track record on human rights since the failed coup on July 15, 2016.

However, the cooperation between the bloc and Turkey with regard to refugees appears to hold up despite their differences. The European Commission's Sixth Report on the Progress made in the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement shows that - in broad strokes - the EU-Turkey refugee deal is working reliably well, especially succeeding in significantly slowing down the flow of illegal crossings to Greece across the Aegean Sea.

The EU-Turkey agreement saves lives

A better Turkey for refugees

Part of the reason why the refugee flow from Turkey to Greece has largely been stemmed is the vast improvement of conditions for refugees in Turkey: With more than 3.4 million refugees in the country, according to numbers given by the Turkish government, a massive plan to improve facilities and infrastructures for refugees is underway with the help of EU funds agreed under the deal to the tune of 3 billion euros.

"Accommodating three million refugees from Syria, Iraq and other countries has continued to be a priority issue for the Turkish authorities, with a huge effort to ensure adequate reception and living conditions. These efforts have also contributed to a reduction of illegal border crossings by Syrians," the European Commission said in a report last month.

"Out of the 3 billion euros for 2016-2017, the total allocated has reached 2.9 billion euros; contracts have been signed for 47 projects for a total amount of 1.572 billion euros - all of which have started being implemented. Disbursements have reached 811 million euros," it detailed.

Among other developments, healthcare facilities, language courses and the rate of school enrolment among underage refugee children have all greatly improved, with the so-called "Emergency Social Safety Net" initiative in Turkey (ESSN) - the largest ever humanitarian program in EU history - directly benefitting from the EU funds with more than 10 percent of the EU funds being channeled into this program alone.

Safety at sea

Efforts to locate migrants at sea have also been stepped up since the agreement between the EU and Turkey was finalized. In addition to European Border and Coast Guard efforts, the "Turkish Coast Guard has continued active patrolling and prevention of departures from Turkey" as well  the report says, adding that new legal measures in Turkey allowing for the confiscation of migrant boats have also helped to curb the flow of refugees.

"Turkey introduced in its Law on Foreigners and International Protection measures regarding the confiscation of vehicles used in human smuggling. As a result, there is evidence that smugglers now need to resort to multiple attempts before they succeed in transporting migrants across the Aegean Sea."

As a result of these measures, the "number of lives lost in the Aegean Sea has also significantly dropped."

Room for improvement

However, challenges remain in this partnership between the EU and Turkey, with arrivals in Greece still outpacing the number of returns from the Greek islands to Turkey, as was agreed as part of the deal. Less than 2,000 migrants have been returned to Turkey in total.

Such "resettlements" in Turkey are chiefly aimed at migrants and asylum seekers, "whose applications have been declared inadmissible or unfounded, crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands after 20 March 2016." However, the processing of asylum applications on the Greek Isles has been slow with a backlog of thousands of refugees.

The same aspect of the EU-Turkey statement also provides for resettlements from Turkey to the EU of documented refugees who are likely to be granted asylum status in the EU as part of a 1:1 framework of resettlements in both directions. Since the beginning of the agreement, more than 6,000 Syrians have been resettled directly from Turkey and in the EU - three times the number of resettlements from Greece back to Turkey.

This success rate in planned, legal crossings, however, should be maintained, the European Commission said, in order to ensure control over the dangerous illegal crossings on the Aegean Sea.

Drawing encouraging conclusions

Despite the criticisms, the European Commission summed up in a press release that the ongoing cooperation with Turkey had been "fundamental in tackling the exploitation of vulnerable people seeking to cross the Aegean Sea."

"It has ensured greater humanitarian assistance in Turkey in parallel with opening new legal channels to the EU. The EU-Turkey Statement established new ways to bring order into migration flows and save lives. The interlocking of migration management by both parties has brought an unprecedented degree of cooperation."

But while Greece is finally able to gain greater control over the situation with Turkey's help, migrants are increasingly opting to take on even more perilous journeys to Libya in a bid to cross the Mediterranean there in hopes of reaching Italy.