The man who carried out the terrible attack in Solingen last week, Issa al-H., was – authorities believe – a member of the Islamic State group. He was also a Syrian national, an asylum seeker who received subsidiary protection in Germany after the deadline to send him back to Bulgaria under the Dublin Regulation had expired.

Since the incident the government has come under pressure with proposals to introduce tougher measures aimed at reducing the number of asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan allowed into Germany, or making it easier for Syrians and Afghans who commit serious crimes to be thrown out.

These calls are based on an assumption that Syrian and Afghan asylum seekers are more likely to commit violent crimes. But what do the facts tell us? Is there a link between immigration and levels of crime?

Also read: Germany: Crime statistics and migration

'We need to talk about foreign criminality'

Many media reports and politicians say yes, "Ausländerkriminalität" (foreigner criminality), is a growing problem. Earlier this year, both the interior minister Nancy Faeser and Herbert Reul, the premier of the state in which the knife attack happened, said the same thing: "We need to talk about foreign criminality."

Faeser also declared that increasing migration had led to more crime.

This was after the release of figures from the federal criminal investigation agency (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) in April, which led to media reports of a "large" and "shocking" increase in foreign suspects.

Overall in 2023, police recorded 2.3 million criminal suspects, more than at any time since 2016, including more than 920,000 cases involving non-German suspects.

It is important to note that these figures say nothing about how many were convicted. They also do not cover certain types of criminal offence, like tax evasion. They do, however, include immigration law violations, such as illegal entry and residence, which only foreigners can commit. 

Were there more foreign suspects in 2023 than in 2022?

Yes, the number of both German citizens and non-German citizens registered as suspects went up.

Of the total of 2.3 million, 1.3 million suspects were German citizens. This number was around one percent higher than the previous year.

At over 920,000, the number of non-German suspects was up 17.8 percent on the previous year, according to the German Catholic news agency KNA.

This is partly explained by a statistical effect. The total number of people in Germany who do not have German citizenship has been growing for some years, both in absolute numbers and in relation to the total population. 

Did the proportion of foreigners among criminal suspects go up?

Yes, among the suspects identified in 2023, the proportion of foreigners was just over 41 percent. After deducting immigration law violations, the figure was 34.4 percent, according to the head of the BKA, Holger Münch.

The number of foreign suspects rose relatively sharply in cases of pickpocketing, robbery and burglary, threats, physical assault, resisting arrest and drug-related offences.

Does this mean that foreigners are more criminal than Germans?

No, says Holger Münch. In an interview with the AFP news agency, he said living conditions, education and economic conditions also play a role. Crime is generally higher in poor and socially-disadvantaged areas, where more foreigners live.

That people from other countries are "in principle more criminal, that’s not true," said Münch.

As criminologists point out, there are also other factors that complicate how the figures can be interpreted. For example, the statistics only include crimes that have been reported. Some crimes, such as break-ins or shoplifting where the victim is insured, are more likely to be reported than, say, domestic abuse. Police are generally called to crimes that are committed in public places and institutions – including asylum seeker centers, less so in private settings.

Who is a 'foreigner'?

The wide definition of foreigner also creates a distorting effect. "Non-German" refers not only to asylum seekers and refugees, it also includes people transiting through Germany, people residing illegally in the country or who went there specifically to commit a crime, such as traffickers or members of criminal gangs, as well as students and tourists.

Do most foreigners suspected of crimes come from Syria?

Relative to the proportion of foreigners who are from Syria, no. While most foreign suspects in crimes committed in 2023 were Syrians, this is because of their high proportion overall. The KNA news agency also notes that when the figures are broken down by nationality, what stands out is that the proportion of Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi suspects has remained consistently below the "foreigner" average. By contrast, the relative number of suspects from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Georgia has been significantly higher.

Are Germans or foreigners more often the victims of violent crimes?

In absolute terms, Germans are more often victims of violence. There were around 1.25 million victims of crimes, including attempted crimes, that were recorded in 2023. Three quarters of these were German citizens.

In relative terms, however, foreigners are more at risk of becoming a victim of crime, according to the statistics. Last year 25 percent of victims were foreigners, significantly more than their share of around 15.5 percent of Germany’s total population. 

With KNA, AFP