The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI), funded by the German federal government and the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia, has published the results of research into the impact of policy changes on people's intention to migrate from Senegal to Europe.

Last November, Germany decided to introduce a number of important reforms aimed at limiting irregular immigration. Some of the new measures targeted people from particular countries, including Senegal and Ghana. Under the changes, migrants from these "safe countries of origin" who come to Germany will have their asylum applications processed faster and will be deported more quickly.

Most unaware of state benefits

This is one way the government hopes to make Germany "less attractive as a destination country." The same is true for other new measures, like the introduction of a payment card instead of cash for asylum seekers, and the doubling of the period of time refugees have to wait to receive regular unemployment benefits (Bürgergeld) from 18 months to three years.

In order to find out what effect, if any, these policy changes could be expected to have on people’s decisions about whether to migrate to Germany, the researchers from the RWI surveyed nearly 1,000 men aged 18 to 40 in Senegal, an African country where the number of people leaving on irregular journeys to Europe – mostly via the Canary Islands – has risen significantly.

When they asked the respondents about the German government’s reforms, presenting these as hypothetical policies, the researchers found that few people were well-informed about European asylum procedures and regulations.

They also discovered that only a very small proportion of people – around 11% – saw the amount of state benefits they would receive as relevant to their choice of destination country. In fact, less than half of the respondents were even aware that asylum seekers are eligible for state benefits in Europe. Many also did not know that benefits differed across countries. About 10% of people believed Germany's system to be the most generous.

The cash card, which has been one of the government's most controversial reforms, had no effect on migrants' intentions, while the longer wait for "Bürgergeld" also had no impact among the poorest respondents and only a very slight influence overall.

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No momentous changes

The RWI’s data reflect the findings of previous studies, which have shown that reasons for prefering a particular destination are not government benefits, but migrant networks and job opportunities.

Only one policy change being examined in several European countries – the possible relocating of asylum procedures to a third country such as Tunisia or Rwanda – had a noticeable influence. The researchers found that "offshoring the asylum process significantly and substantially lowers irregular migration intentions across nearly all types of subjects."

The results of the RWI research paint a mixed picture. Changes to asylum policy may affect potential migrants' decision-making, "in some respects and for some populations," according to the report.

But it concludes that, since few people choose a destination country because of government benefits, "momentous average impacts are unlikely."