The increase in the number of migrants arriving on Lampedusa in recent days can be explained from several different angles, Matteo Villa, a researcher at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan has told ANSA.

"Looking at the very short term, for the past two weeks there has been bad weather in Tunisia. As soon as there was a window of good weather they all left," Villa said.

Over the medium term, meanwhile, there is a need to help Tunisia stabilize. "The Italian government should put pressure on [Tunisian president Kais] Saied to accept money from the international community," though in reality, Italy cannot do a great deal, he says.

Government 'showed foresight in decreto flussi'

According to Villa, the current Italian government showed foresight when it introduced "the largest-ever decreto flussi [a law that determines how many non-European citizens can enter Italy for work]" in July. This was something that most of the current opposition never did, he says.

"We will let many in, and the planning has been done for three years. Of course, looking at this wave, we are behind, but for the time being it is only possible to deal with it."

The migrants who are disembarking on Italian coasts now had already been travelling for months, Villa points out. "They come from West Africa. They crossed the desert and now they will not be stopped."

When the reach the coast of North Africa, the vast majority of them say that they have come so far and that as soon as they have the money they will take to the sea despite the risks of dying there, he explains.

"Over the past 12 months, we saw 160,000 people disembark [on Italian coasts]. We are back to the numbers seen in the 2014-2017 period, though we have not yet reached the peak at that time of 200,000. These past two days have however been a peak for Lampedusa," the researcher continued.

"A wave of 10,000 people in three days cannot be handled," Villa told ANSA, adding that there should be an increase in "ferrying them to the mainland, since over the medium term it will be very difficult to reduce the departures" from North African coasts.

"We have previously experienced an increase in departures. However, there is no longer the reception structure in place that there was in 2014-2015. It was difficult to handle it even then, but we managed. Now the government is embarrassed because it cannot do what it did before," said Villa.

'Tunisian authorities cannot stop the departures'

The North African region, the researcher says, "is clearly a powder keg". "You can try to seal off Libya but people will find a way to get out," he noted.

On the role played by Tunisian president Kais Saied, he says that "there are many conspiracy theorists who say that he wants to raise the tension level to get more money, but I do not think that this is the case".

"Southern Tunisia is suffering a severe economic crisis. First there was the plunge in tourism due to COVID, then the price crisis due to the conflict in Ukraine. The average salary is 150 euros per month.

"Mostly people from sub-Saharan Africa are the ones leaving, and many of those that help them to leave are not militias, as is the case in Libya. They are Tunisians, 'common' people who need to make some money. It is very difficult to stop them.

"The Tunisian police continue to say that they have stopped people building iron boats, and yet several hundreds are still being built. This is an industry and Saied does not have much control" over it, Villa said.

He also points out that over the past 12 months, about 70,000 people who departed from Tunisia have been intercepted and taken back by the Tunisian authorities. "Thus it is not Saied letting them all leave; he cannot stop them. This shows how explosive the situation is and it is not clear how to solve it over the short term."