Irregular migrant departures from the coasts of North Africa to Europe are not encouraged by search and rescue missions in the Central Mediterranean, a recent study has found. Instead, factors such as conflicts, economic hardship, natural disasters, and weather conditions drive migration.

Rescue operations are not a 'pull factor'

The study was published in Scientific Reports by an international research group led by Alejanda Rodríguez Sánchez from the University of Potsdam (Germany). The scientists looked at the number of attempts to cross the Central Mediterranean between 2011 and 2020.

Through various simulations, the researchers tried to identify factors that can best predict changes in the number of sea crossings. The factors that they looked at included the number of search and rescue missions -- both by state authorities and NGOs, as well as the currency exchange rates, the cost of international raw materials, unemployment rates, conflicts, violence, the rates of flight travel between Africa, the Middle East and Europe and meteorological conditions.

Libya: Pushbacks reduced migration, increased human rights violations

The study also looked at the increased activities of the Libyan coast guard since 2017, intercepting migrant boats and returning migrants to Libya. Researchers found that this had caused a reduction in the number of departure attempts and might have discouraged migration.

The authors pointed out that, however, this has coincided with the reports of a worsening of human rights for migrants in Libya -- particularly in the detention centers where migrants are being held after being stopped at sea.

The researchers looked at migration on an "aggregate-level" and did not look at "micro-motives of migrants and smugglers", they pointed out in the study. They recommended that future studies should do an in-depth analysis of the impact of search and rescue missions at sea on the decisions of individual migrants and human traffickers.

The full study can be found here.