According to a Frontex report published June 16, more than 100,000 people crossed the borders of the European Union (EU) via migratory routes from West Africa to the Canary Islands, from the western Mediterranean routes to southern Europe, and from the Balkan route to western Europe.

But in this report, as in previous ones, the mere numbers at first glance can be misleading: Frontex does not actually count entries but "detections of irregular crossings at the external borders" of the EU.

'Migrants are counted multiple times'

These detections are made by "surveillance camera recordings at the borders or by the agents themselves," Thomas Lacroix, geographer at the CNRS told InfoMigrants. "That means a person who passes three times in front of the camera will be counted three times," the researcher added.

Double counting often occurs in the Balkans, where migrants sometimes cross the same border dozens of times in the attempt to enter the European Union.

Franck Düvell, researcher at the University of Osnabrück (Germany) and specialist in migration, has been analyzing Frontex data for a long time and drew the same conclusion. "Frontex does not state clearly enough in its report that all the data it refers to relates to irregular entry attempts as events and not as individuals. However, everyone knows that people try several times [to cross a border] and that they are therefore counted several times […] It is a huge problem on the so-called Balkan route," he told InfoMigrants.

Reliable data on the Central Mediterranean route

However, Frontex's figures for sea routes from West Africa, the West Mediterranean and the Central Mediterranean are quite reliable, experts say. In particular because in these three areas, multiple attempts to cross once someone has made it from a boat journey are unusual.

Thus, the figures given by Frontex are close to those of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The latter recorded 54,804 entries into Italy between January 1 and June 12, 2023 in the Central Mediterranean while Frontex counted 50,318.

Still, these entries into the Italian peninsula are increasing sharply (+ 158%), according to the border guard report. The increase is attributed to a deterioration of the security situation in Tunisia and Libya, the two main countries of departure.

Fall in entries into the Balkans

Entries into the Balkans, on the other hand, are decreasing. The Frontex report indicates that in the first five months of 2023 irregular border crossings decreased by 25% compared to the same period in 2022. The decrease is also noticeable for the Eastern Mediterranean route (-35%), or the West African one (-47%).

The number of arrivals had reached record highs in 2022 after two years of pandemic lockdowns preventing movement. "This explains the high numbers we obtained last year. And this also explains why the figures decreased between September-October of last year until today," Franck Düvell told InfoMigrants.

More funding, more detections

The German researcher points out that Frontex "never speaks" of the context of the drop or rise in numbers. For him, omitting contextual data is political. By doing so, "they are telling the EU […] that the borders are out of control, and that they need more money and more control."

Geographer Thomas Lacroix also explains that "the increase in detections is the consequence of Frontex's budget increase." The more checks there are, the more border crossings are detected. By publishing rising figures, Frontex secures future funding.

While the European agency currently has 1,500 officers from member states, it plans to have 10,000 border guards by 2027. In April 2022, the NGO State Watch revealed that Frontex also planned to change the armament of its officers and equip them with "lethal and non-lethal" weapons.

These developments are made possible by a significant increase in the budget allocated to Frontex. Between 2021 and 2023, the agency's budget has increased from €544 million to €845 million. "The agency's annual budget was €460 million in 2020 and €86 million in 2012, i.e. a multiplication by 8.7 in 10 years," French senators Jean-François Rapin and François-Noël Buffet wrote in a motion in December 2022.