Since the civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, Turkey has become the world's largest home to refugees and migrants. At least 3.7 million Syrians – possibly as many as five million – now live in Turkey -- most with "temporary protection" status.

Another 240,000 Syrians have obtained Turkish citizenship since the beginning of the war and with it, they now have the right to vote in the upcoming polls, which will elect both a president and a new parliament. 

A little over a week ahead of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's toughest election in his 20-year-rule, many Syrian refugees are hopeful that he will triumph.

"May Erdogan win," Neroz Hussein, a refugee from Kurdish-majority Kobane in Syria's northwest, told the news agency AFP.

"Recep Tayyip Erdogan will help us stay," the 35-year-old, who fled to Turkey with her husband Adil Sheho in 2015, added.

Threat of being forced to return

Now based in Sanliurfa, a city 40 kilometers away from the Syrian border, Neroz said the family has come to treat Turkey as its "second homeland."

"Our four children were born here. They don't know Syria," Adil explained.

"We were well received at first, but the situation changed because of the economy," he continued, referring to a cost-of-living crisis that has led to increased anti-migrant sentiment among the Turkish public.

Many refugees in Turkey, who have temporary protection status, fear that they will be at risk of being forced back to Syria, as Erdogan's main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the secular CHP party, has pledged to repatriate the Syrians "within two years."

"Even if they don't send us back all at once, they will put pressure on us, demand papers, increase our rents and bills," said Adil.

As recent as last month, Kilicdaroglu said the military should stop the arrival of irregular migrants, tweeting that junior soldiers should even go over the heads of their generals to stop people from entering Turkey: "I am appealing to our soldiers. … Perform your duty on our borders. Don't listen to anyone."

Read more: Turkey election: Refugees are a top political issue

'A vote for Erdogan is a vote against Assad'

Meanwhile, it's not only people who, by now, have a long history in Turkey, who can become naturalized. Those with the means to make big investments in Turkey or those who are able to secure university places in sought-after fields are also able to gain citizenship.

Naturalized in 2020, Hussein Utbah, an electrical engineering student, will be among those voting in Turkey for the first time. But the 27-year-old will be the only one eligible member of his family, casting his ballot for Erdogan in the hope that his mother and five siblings will have a future in Turkey.

"My friends and I all have the same view: not only because we are Syrians, but because of what we see he has done for the country," Hussein told AFP.

Hussein, whose family fled the brutal violence in Raqqa in 2015, does not believe the CHP promise that Syrians will be returned home in a "voluntary and dignified" way.

"We can't go back and trust Bashar al-Assad," he said.

Mass repatriations 'unrealistic'

The last time Turkey had a presidential election was in 2018. That year, 50-year-old Zara Dogbeh arrived from Syria. She has since launched a popular Middle Eastern food catering service, but doesn't know what tomorrow holds:

"We are more fearful this time. The (CHP) talks about sending us back in every speech," she said.

But Omar Kadkoy, a researcher at the TEPAV think tank in the capital Ankara, said the prospect of mass repatriation of Syrians was "unrealistic."

"Even with the end of the war in Syria, we still will have to ensure their security on the spot, because disappearances, persecutions and kidnappings continue there," he said.

The analyst told AFP that he believes the CHP has used the issue to win votes instead of focusing on "pressing issues such as the economy, justice and democracy."

Meanwhile Mohamed Utbah, a 25-year-old Syrian, says he cannot understand why anyone would want to send him back. Delivering his mother's catering order on a scooter before returning to work as a security guard, he said, "we're not doing anything wrong here. We're useful to Turkey."

Read more: Turkey cracks down on migrants in major operation as pre-election rhetoric heats up

With AFP